Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

THREAD.

Today is the day of presidential election in my native Belarus. It is the 6th election in Belarusian history. Only 1994 election was deemed free and fair, and votes in 2001, 2006, 2010 and 2015 were marred by electoral fraud and government repression.

1/x https://t.co/kboXUgGjHW

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

When the election was announced in early May 2020, it was expected that they would closely resemble the vote of 2015. During which Lukashenka, in power in Belarus since 1994, ran against the crowd of extras who did not really present any threats to him.

2/x https://t.co/FFdi53IVMl

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

It quickly emerged that Lukashenka would be challenged from an unexpected front. Not by the the established opposition, mostly confined to identity politics, but by new figures - banker Viktar Babaryka, YouTube blogger Siarhei Tsikhanouski and ex-diplomat Valery Tsapkala.

3/x https://t.co/j0364DEAZM

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

All these three challengers were ultimately eliminated from the race by the repressive state machine. Babaryka and Tsikhanouski got detained on dubious charges, and all three were ultimately not registered. But then an unexpected twist happened, which changed the race.

4/x https://t.co/vYfOfP1cUN

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of detained blogger, decided to run for presidency in his place. And she was ultimately registered as a candidate, as the sexist incumbent did not expect that a women, let alone a housewife can be a real challenge in this election.

5/x https://t.co/Nku9klWk8n

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

On 14 July the Central Election Commission (CEC) registered Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as one of the 5 presidential candidates. Two other alternative candidates - Viktar Babaryka and Valery Tsapkala were disqualified on alleged procedural grounds.

https://t.co/0wdtlO0liu
6/x https://t.co/KY60cUoZgi

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

Two days later Sviatlana united forces with campaigns of Babaryka (with his campaign chief Maryia Kalesnikava in the photo on the left) and Tsapkala (with his wife Veranika on the right). This pulled together resources and people.

https://t.co/a9PG0uuWhJ
7/x

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

Social media in Belarus quickly responded to Tsikhanouskaya's candidacy - and her strongly feminist campaign, aided by other female politicians - with memes. And these memes clearly paint her as a favoured candidate for those on the internet:

8/x https://t.co/rV1GoPjyxj

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

From late July Sviatlana and her team toured #Belarus gathering massive crowds of supporters - with up to 70,000 in Minsk and up to 20,000 in regional cities. This is unprecedented level of political mobilisation in Belarus in recent decades:

9/x https://t.co/ughPvKhYJo

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

Sviatlana's electoral programme is simple:

1) Release all the political prisoners.
2) Hold a referendum on returning to the 1994 constitution, bringing back checks and balances to the political system.
3) Hold a fresh presidential election within 6 months.

10/x https://t.co/K65NYKHdmS

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

The Belarusian authorities resorted to the usual tactics: they disrupted Sviatlana's campaign events in the past week, detained protesters, and declared turnout of 41.7% in the 5 days of early voting (a method of electoral rigging).

https://t.co/s60gyWdpv8
11/x https://t.co/gssjhgJPsi

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

Political opinion polls are banned in Belarus, therefore we do not know electoral sentiment. But based on large protest support for Tsikhanouskaya, it looks as incumbent Lukashenka enjoys no more than 20-25% (or less!) support - mostly the loyalists and the siloviki.

12/x https://t.co/flglu0Lydn

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

In a free and fair election Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya would probably emerge as a winner. But Belarus being Belarus, I expect that the CEC will declare Lukashenka as winner of the election, with some 70-75% of the vote. Such result will be a complete fabrication.

13/x https://t.co/ZvYpHD3rBq

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

So the big question is what happens in the days after the election. Protests are likely, but the police are likely to use force to disperse and detain protesters in large numbers. There are already reports of military vehicles on the streets of Minsk:

14/x https://t.co/tmwyh3lHKq

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

If there is significant violence by the police and security services against peaceful protesters in Minsk and other cities in Belarus, this will likely lead to calls for Western countries (EU, US, etc) to re-introduce sanctions against Lukashenka and his regime.

15/x https://t.co/Kkq1fOU0un

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

If new Western sanctions against Belarusian leadership emerge, Lukashenka's victory will become a Pyrrhic one, as it will weaken him in any negotiations with Russia. Putin is likely to push for more concessions, including further political integration & military bases.

16/x https://t.co/5pE7dwP6uU

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

So by keeping power in Minsk in this year's sham "election", Lukashenka is actually likely to lose out as Belarusian sovereignty will likely be eroded further by the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

17/x https://t.co/ojwSTzZjge

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

An alternative scenario, albeit less likely: if Belarusians do not stop the resistance despite the government repression, and continue with non-violent but longer term resistance, through strikes and peaceful protests. This will crack the elites, eroding Lukashenka's power

18/x https://t.co/EqHxuEm5SI

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

Under this scenario, a "Velvet Revolution" similar to that of Armenia in 2018, can emerge, with groups of the elites - and siloviki - withdrawing their support for Lukashenka, and switching side to the popular sentiment. However, I think that this scenario is less likely

19/x https://t.co/3jaz1GhWNj

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov · Aug 09

My hope for the next few days is that there is no excessive police violence on streets of Minsk and other cities, and that no blood will be shed. Belarus deserves a better future than the one offered by the current repressive state built by Lukashenka in the past 26 years.

20/20 https://t.co/t9UkPu68LG