Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

1/Let's talk about colleges, and how screwed they are.

https://t.co/KdLxLM8QCJ

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

2/Pretty much everything about the in-person college experience is a COVID risk.

Parties and campus social activities are some of the highest-risk activities. Simply living in dorms is a pretty big risk. In-person classes are somewhat of a risk as well. https://t.co/runbj0cdLO

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

3/A study from South Korea suggests that college-age people are the fastest spreaders of COVID.

https://t.co/kaoqCv5p5p

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

4/Death rates are low for young people, but a lot of them get scary long-term symptoms. (And they can spread it to older people who die.)

https://t.co/C5ODFuZ9jl

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

5/But empty dorms lose money. So many colleges are preparing to pack the dorms, out of concern for their pocketbooks, even though this will probably cause a lot of illness.

https://t.co/ltHetXOdtR

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

6/Like so much of America, they're facing what they think is a short-term choice between money and health, and they're choosing money.

https://t.co/GvgQWIAvIJ

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

7/Many are choosing to hold in-person classes, too.

1. https://t.co/Y8STIAUTO6

2. https://t.co/GTyzXKnOYu

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

8/Note that Trump and ICE are helping to force their hand, by threatening to bar colleges' highest-paying students (international students) from entering the country if classes are held online.

https://t.co/qMdztWWHUy

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

9/Another likely reason colleges are going ahead with on-campus student life and in-person classes is that they're afraid that too much distant learning will cause students to wonder why they're paying so much for "Zoom University".

https://t.co/rPrfhzUXlC

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

10/My colleague @tylercowen believes that online classes could spark the beginning of a long-term shift away from the traditional college model of education.

I'm skeptical, but it's probably something that's on university administrators' minds.

https://t.co/FGZk4ACxxn

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

11/So colleges are choosing $$$ over health in the short term. But in the long term they may lose both. Having a lot of kids get sick will reduce parents' trust in universities as stewards of their children's safety. That could accelerate any shift away from traditional college.

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

12/When you add this to a big drop in international students and (probably) a big drop in state funding, it means colleges are in big financial trouble for the forseeable future.

https://t.co/DhX5HQgnH5

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

13/And that means college towns are in big trouble too.

Remember, colleges do a LOT to spur economic growth, especially through research activities that draw in private business.

https://t.co/hdzjGDNZcM

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

14/College towns have been a bright spot in the U.S. economy for decades now, and that could be in danger.

https://t.co/fx5BO43j38

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

15/Small towns in declining regions often depend on the revenue that colleges bring in, from international students and the government.

That's in jeopardy now. Expect more regions to sink into decline.

https://t.co/Z5K13ODezW

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

16/The only real solution to colleges' woes would be a big federal bailout, but with Republicans in charge, that ain't happening. https://t.co/OPraSZ4FW5

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion · Jul 28

17/So no matter what colleges do about COVID, they're trapped between a rock and a hard place.

Unless President Biden can coordinate a big university bailout, there are dark times ahead for one of the U.S. economy's core institutions.

(end)

https://t.co/L498gzTuGp